2006: In the wake of an ever-left-turning Bush Administration, the country turns to a party that it did not understand. Oh, sure, it had vague memories of a glorious time somewhere around 1995, when this party controlled the executive branch, and Lord knows, anything’s got to be better than the corruption-riddled beltway Republicans, right?
2008: After 2 years of legislative control by said party, the country hears the siren calls of “Hope” and “Change”. Ignoring the campaign’s plain statements about his oligarchic socialism,their man’s plain statement that he intended to take what others had so that it could be spread around to those who didn’t work to earn it, and their man’s creepy messianic cult of personality (encouraged by his campaign), the country decided to give him a fair cop. After all, anything’s got to be better than those clueless Bush-like beltway Republicans, right?
2009: Screw it. We’re voting conservative.
2009 isn’t much of an election year. Most places are content with municipal elections at best. However, all is not quiet on the national political front, and the polls and the tide seems to be turning sharply away from The Anointed One and his long-eared ilk – at least for now.
First – let’s take a look at the executive branches… the governors. In the US this year, there’s 3 governors races – 2 for states and 1 for the Territory of the Northern Mariana Islands.
In Virginia, Republican Bob McDonnell looks to hand a class-4 butt-whoompin’ to Hillary Clinton campaign chair Democrat Creigh Deeds. In a re-match of the 2005 Virginia Attorney General race, McDonnell currently holds somewhere between a 13 and 18% lead over Deeds in a state that has elected 2 Democrats as its previous 2 governors. How bad is it for Deeds? Since he finally came away with the primary in June (by spending 1/4 of what Terry McAuliffe had spent per vote), Deeds has remained persona non grata among beltway Democrats. The Anointed One himself has campaigned for this guy… once. Back in August. About 5 miles from the White House front door.
Now, I have a couple of caveats here. First – I don’t know much about McDonnell. I don’t know if he’s a conservative or just plays one on TV. Rich Lowry over at National Review calls him a “pragmatic conservative”, and I think that’s a fair analysis based on his record and his stated positions of tax cuts, school choice, business growth, and all that good fiscally conservative stuff Republicans SHOULD have been standing for all along. Second – Virginia is an oddball. Since the Democrats lost their Confederate-era stranglehold on the state, after Nixon, the state has consistently elected a governor from the party that didn’t control the White House. Carter got Republican John Dalton. Reagan got Democrats Chuck Robb and Gerald Baililes. Bush I got Douglas Wilder. Clinton got Republicans George Allen and Jim Gilmore. Bush II got Democrats Warner and Kaine.
In short: Virginia will be a victory for conservatism, although it won’t be the “yee-hah” the conservative movement really needs. It will, however, be proof that conservatism is not dead.
I’ve seen some ugly races, but this one is you-gee-ell-why, UGLY. Corruptocrat John Corzine of New Jersey is fighting to keep his job as governor against one Chris Christie, and the race has been reduced, seriously, to fat jokes. That’s right… Corzine is so corrupt that the only way he can fight back against the guy who helped to prosecute the Fort Dix Terror Plot goofballs is to make fun of his weight.
Throw in fairly popular but unelectable independent Chris Daggett, and you’ve got a gigantic mess.
Right now, Jersey’s a bit of a tossup. Christie held a commanding lead for much of the year, but that lead’s shrunk to a virtual dead heat – mostly since Daggett entered the race. Rasmussen’s got Christie up by 3, but Quinnipiac’s got Corzine up by 5. One Democrat push-poll has Corzine up by 3. Another Democrat push-poll has Christie up by 4. It’s all over the place, and I’m not about to make a call other than it’ll be a nail-biter. Worse yet, history’s no real barometer, either.
What we can say about the NJ Governor’s race is that it reflects the divided mood of the country. There is a sharp division between the left and the right, and those in the middle, tho willing to head off and do their own thing, are ultimately powerless to do anything other than to manipulate the results of the 2 major parties in one direction or another. And if the GOP can pull off knocking over the Corzine administration, it’ll be a gigantic slap in the face to the Obama administration and the Democrat-controlled Congress, and a big flashing warning sign to them for 2010.
Northern Mariana Islands
Seriously. I got nuthin’.
Moving on to the Congressional Elections…. there’s 2 this year: California’s 10th district and New York’s 23rd.
It’s a Democrat stronghold where a Democrat was appointed by a Democrat and so they need a new Democrat. The GOP has a candidate that’s stronger than usual, but the idea that they can win is a bit of a fantasy. Still, any race here where a Republican comes within 10 points of a Democrat isn’t quite a slap… more of a middle finger from your car as you drive safely in the other direction.
New York 23
I wrote about this one yesterday. Typically, this would be a guaranteed Republican victory… except the genius GOP Beltway Elite decided to back a candidate whose only attachment to the Republican Party is that she has the support of the Beltway Republicans. This stupidity has driven A) the Democrat candidate to within 5 points of winning the race, and B) conservatives to back a third party candidate, and to let the GOP know in no uncertain terms exactly where it can stick their support requests. It’s become a good illustration of exactly what the GOP has become and what conservatives think it should be.
At this point, Hoffman’s made a few late errors that lead me to believe this race may go to Democrat Owens, but if it does, it’ll be tight. Within a couple of percentage points, max. Dede will be lost to the winds of obscurity.
And that’s it, kids. I’m sure there’s other races around that we could cover, but I could honestly care less about the New York City Mayor’s race. As far as I’m concerned, Bloomberg vs. Thompson is just liberal vs. more liberal.